China's Clean Energy Expansion Accelerates as Coal Power Growth Stalls for First Time

China's clean energy development has reached a critical inflection point — its expansion rate is no longer merely meeting surging electricity demand but is now actively displacing traditional coal power. A new report from energy think tank Ember reveals that in 2025, coal-fired generation has plateaued in 17 of the 26 provincial-level administrative regions analyzed — including major industrial provinces such as Shandong and Hunan, which together account for over half of China's thermal power installed capacity.

Data shows national thermal power generation (predominantly coal-based) declined by 0.7% year-on-year in 2025, while total societal electricity consumption surged by 5%. This divergence starkly contrasts with 2015, when electricity demand grew only 0.5% and thermal power declines reflected passive adjustment; in 2025, the drop stems from robust clean power growth that not only covers all new demand but also begins eroding existing coal power's market share.

Notably, since early 2024, China's 12-month rolling average of coal power generation has remained flat — indicating that the 2025 decline is not a short-term fluctuation but a clear signal of structural transformation.

Ember notes China is transitioning from the past decade's "build-then-dismantle" model — where clean energy systems were built first, followed by gradual fossil fuel phaseout — to a more challenging "build-while-dismantling" phase: clean energy systems are expanding even as fossil fuel infrastructure begins contracting locally. Dr. Muyi Yang, Senior Analyst at Ember, stated: "The clean power system is steadily gaining strength and reach, and the fossil fuel system is already feeling this shift — fossil fuel use is flattening broadly, across both industries and provinces."

Energy storage technology is becoming pivotal in enabling high-penetration clean power integration. By end-2024, battery storage had surpassed pumped hydro to become China's largest installed energy storage form; its capacity further grew by 84% in 2025. From 2022 to 2025, average battery utilization roughly doubled — confirming deeper grid regulation participation.

Clean transition is accelerating into end-use sectors. Of the 11 industrial sectors monitored by Ember, fossil fuel consumption has peaked in eight (mostly since 2018): food & beverage manufacturing fell 26%, transport equipment manufacturing dropped 52%, and fossil fuel extraction plunged 71%. Crucially, this is not due to industrial output contraction — per capita industrial output continues rising, while per capita fossil fuel consumption falls — demonstrating systemic electrification replacing fossil fuels, not deindustrialization.

In 2024, electricity accounted for 29% of China's final energy consumption — up sharply from 22% in 2015; by comparison, Europe and the U.S. stand at ~23% and 21%, respectively. In transport, battery electric passenger vehicles represented 67% of China's new vehicle sales in June 2026; electric truck sales doubled consecutively in 2024 and 2025, reaching 26% of total truck sales in 2025 — nine out of every ten electric trucks sold globally went to China.

This transition is easing China's long-standing energy security vulnerability — its heavy reliance on imported oil. In 2024, China's EV fleet displaced approximately 400,000 barrels of gasoline demand per day — up significantly from 100,000 barrels in 2020; combined with other electrification applications, Ember estimates China reduced oil demand by at least 1 million barrels per day annually. Each barrel less imported means one less point of vulnerability to global supply disruptions.